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02/09/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three goals seems to be the magic number for the Kings, but their first meeting with the Panthers this season was one of the exceptions to the rule.
Los Angeles shoots for its eighth straight win over struggling Florida this evening and a possible share of the Pacific Division lead.
The lowest-scoring team with 114 goals on the season, the Kings were held to just one goal total over the first two contests of their five-game road trip, getting shut out in St. Louis last Friday before a 2-1 defeat the following night in Carolina.
Los Angeles' offense got back on track a bit on Tuesday, getting goals from Anze Kopitar, Dustin Penner and Kyle Clifford, who had the game-winner, in a 3-1 triumph over the Lightning. The Kings moved to 15-0-1 on the year when scoring three or more goals and got 24 saves from goaltender Jonathan Quick.
"Usually when we do get three, we're pretty safe with [Quick] back there, obviously," said Kopitar, who has 11 points in his past 12 games and a team- leading 47 on the season. "He kept us in the game in the first period. They came hard after we scored, and he definitely gave us a chance. That's all you want from your goaltender."
Clifford put the Kings ahead for good when he hoped out of the penalty box and took a long feed from defenseman Rob Scuderi before scoring on a backhander.
"I knew he was coming out of the box, but it was more of an area pass than anything," Scuderi said. "Cliff did the rest. He was real smart by going to the middle of the ice. I kind of threw it out there, but I think it was mostly him getting under it."
Mike Richards added an assist for the Kings, his first point in nine games.
The victory pulled Los Angeles to within two points of San Jose for first place in the Pacific Division. The Sharks, who have three more wins than the Kings, have 64 points on the season.
Los Angeles didn't need three goals to beat Florida back on Dec. 1, getting 41 saves from Quick in a 2-1 win. The Kings have won the past seven encounters since their last loss to the Panthers on Nov. 27, 2002 and haven't lost in Florida since Oct. 26, 2001, winning its past three trips there.
The Panthers will look to snap those skids this evening and get back into first place in the Southeast Division. Florida fell a point behind Washington due to Tuesday's 4-0 setback to the Capitals and now sit ninth overall in the East despite being so close to first place.
Washington hosts Winnipeg this evening.
Former Florida goaltender Tomas Vokoun made 42 saves for Washington, while Scott Clemmensen allowed four goals on 24 shots. He was beaten for a goal just 13 seconds into the game and Florida lost for the ninth time in its last 13 games (4-5-4).
Panthers coach Kevin Dineen cautioned against overreacting to the bad loss.
"This is NHL hockey. It's not saving the world," he said. "When you take a good tail-kicking, you have to recognize it and accept it and say how can we be better next game."
Jose Theodore, currently battling a strained knee, gave up both goals to the Kings on 26 shots in the December meeting.
<< Flyers seek to halt skid vs. Maple Leafs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to halt their longest
losing streak of the season when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs in
tonight's Eastern Conference clash at Wells Fargo Center.
The Flyers are in the midst of an 0-2-1
<< Canucks could be without Sedin against Wild
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks keep finding ways to win close games,
but tonight they may have to find a way to do so without former Hart Trophy
winner Henrik Sedin.
The Minnesota Wild are hoping the possible return of their captai
<< Sens welcome Fisher back to Ottawa
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators were already burned by one former
teammate this week. They hope that same thing doesn't happen this evening
against the Nashville Predators in Mike Fisher's return to Scotiabank Place.
The 31-year-old F
<< Flames hope to stay hot in Phoenix
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Needing a big two points on Wednesday night, the Calgary
Flames turned to pair of Finns to get the job done. The Flames aim to jump
into the playoff picture this evening and stop the Phoenix Coyotes' three-game
winning streak
Illini and Hoosiers duke it out in Big Ten brawl >>
Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Illinois Fighting Illini are hoping a
win tonight at No. 23 Indiana will give them a boost as they come down the
home stretch in what has been a fairly odd season thus far.
Illinois is 16-7 on the year,
Big Ten showdown pits Badgers against Gophers >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A couple of teams jockeying for position in
the ultra-competitive Big Ten Conference meet in Minneapolis tonight, as
another chapter of the legendary "Border War" is added when the Minnesota
Golden Gophers pla
Gaels and Zags collide in key WCC affair >>
Spokane, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Saint Mary's Gaels have the
opportunity to all but end Gonzaga's reign atop the West Coast Conference, as
the two teams meet in Spokane this evening at the McCarthey Athletic Center.
Saint Mary'
Rivals meet up in Starkville for SEC action >>
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Instate rivals collide in Starkville this
evening, as the 20th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs play host to the Ole
Miss Rebels in an SEC affair at the Humphrey Coliseum.
Rick Stansbury's Bulldogs can't af
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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